A brewing Super El Niño: What it could mean for the economy of SVG

by Antonio Joyette, PhD

As global climate signals intensify, scientists are increasingly watching the Pacific Ocean for signs of a potentially powerful El Niño event in 2026- one that could escalate into what is commonly referred to as a “super El Niño”. While uncertainty remains, early indicators suggest that conditions are aligning for a significant climatic shift, with far-reaching consequences not only globally but also for small island developing states like St. Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG).
For SVG, the implications are not abstract. They cut across critical economic sectors—agriculture, tourism, water resources, and disaster risk management—and could test the resilience of national planning systems and livelihoods alike.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterised by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. In its stronger forms, it can disrupt global weather patterns, leading to extreme heat, droughts, and altered storm activity.

Current forecasts suggest a 60–62% chance of El Niño developing by mid-to-late 2026, with the possibility-though still uncertain- of it reaching extreme or “super” intensity.

For the Caribbean, including SVG, the typical signature of El Niño includes: reduced rainfall and increased drought risk, higher temperatures and heat stress, and suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity. While fewer hurricanes may seem like good news, the broader economic consequences are far more complex.

Agriculture Under Pressure

Agriculture remains a vital component of SVG’s economy and rural livelihoods. However, it is also one of the most climate-sensitive sectors. A strong El Niño could bring prolonged dry spells and elevated temperatures, increase evapo-transpiration and reduce soil moisture. This combination threatens crop yields, particularly for vegetables, root crops, and fruit trees; livestock health, due to reduced pasture and increased heat stress; and water availability for irrigation, which is already limited in many farming communities.

The economic ripple effects could include reduced domestic food production, higher food prices, and greater reliance on imports-placing additional strain on foreign exchange reserves. For farmers, the risks are immediate and tangible. Without adequate irrigation infrastructure or drought-resistant crop varieties, many may face significant income losses. This underscores the urgent need for climate-smart agriculture, improved water storage, and expanded agricultural insurance schemes.

Tourism: Hidden Vulnerabilities

Tourism, a key economic pillar for SVG, is not immune to El Niño’s impacts. While the country may benefit from a reduced hurricane threat, other risks could emerge, undermining the sector. Higher temperatures can reduce visitor comfort, particularly for outdoor activities such as hiking, beach tourism, and excursions. At the same time, water shortages could affect hotel operations, landscaping, and sanitation services.

Marine ecosystems- central to SVG’s tourism appeal- may also suffer. Coral bleaching, driven by warmer sea temperatures, can degrade reef health and diminish the attractiveness of dive and snorkel sites. In economic terms, this translates into: increased operating costs for tourism facilities (cooling, water sourcing), potential declines in visitor satisfaction and repeat travel, and greater competition for limited water resources between tourism and local communities. To remain resilient, the sector will need to prioritise water efficiency, renewable energy use, and climate-resilient infrastructure.

Water Resources:The Critical Constraint

Perhaps the most immediate and severe impact of a strong El Niño for SVG will be felt in water resources. Reduced rainfall can lead to declining river flows, reservoir levels, and groundwater recharge, while demand increases due to heat, agriculture, and tourism.

The consequences are stark: water rationing and supply disruptions, increased reliance on costly alternatives such as desalination or water trucking, and heightened risk of conflict over water allocation.

For a small island state, water scarcity quickly becomes more than an environmental issue, it becomes a national economic and social concern. Addressing this requires forward-looking planning: expanding rainwater harvesting systems, investing in wastewater reuse, protecting watersheds through land-use controls, and developing clear drought contingency plans. Without these measures, water stress could cascade into multiple sectors, amplifying economic vulnerability.

Disaster Risk Reduction:

A Changing Hazard Profile

El Niño presents a paradox for disaster risk management in SVG. While it generally leads to fewer Atlantic hurricanes, it simultaneously increases the likelihood of slow-onset hazards such as drought, heatwaves, and even wildfires. Historically, disaster preparedness in the Caribbean has been heavily focused on hurricanes. However, El Niño highlights the need for a broader, multi-hazard approach.

Key shifts include transformations from acute events (storms) to chronic stresses (drought, heat), and from visible destruction to less visible but equally damaging impacts on livelihoods and ecosystems.

Addressing climate risk requires several key actions, including updating national risk assessments to reflect changing hazard patterns, developing heat action plans and drought management strategies, and strengthening early warning systems for climate variability. The failure to adapt to these changes could leave the country vulnerable to risks that may not be as dramatic as hurricanes but can be equally disruptive. One of the most important lessons from the potential occurrence of a super El Niño is that climate risk encompasses not only long-term changes but also short-term variability.

Traditionally, planning frameworks in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, as well as in much of the Caribbean, have emphasised climate change projections over decades and the impacts of extreme events such as hurricanes.

Yet El Niño underscores the importance of inter-annual climate variability, which can have immediate and severe economic consequences. To respond effectively, national planning systems must integrate seasonal climate forecasts into decision-making, adjust sectoral policies dynamically in response to climate signals, and improve coordination across agriculture, water, tourism, and disaster management. This is not simply a technical challenge; it is a governance issue requiring policy coherence, institutional coordination, and proactive leadership.

A Window for Action

While there is still uncertainty about whether the upcoming El Niño will reach “super” intensity, the risk is significant enough to require preparation. For St. Vincent and the Grenadines, the potential impacts are evident, including agriculture facing drought stress, tourism dealing with heat and water challenges, and water resources being put under pressure. Additionally, disaster risk profiles may shift. However, within this challenge lies an opportunity to strengthen resilience, modernise planning systems, and incorporate climate intelligence into economic decision-making. As the Pacific continues to warm, the key question is not whether SVG will experience the effects, but rather how prepared the country will be when they arrive.

Antonio R.T. Joyette is a Caribbean environmental scientist and Associate Lecturer in Climate Change at The UWI, Cave Hill Campus.