Focus on Asia

Asia is home to two of the world’s most populous countries in China and India. Asia also accounts for nearly 60 percent of the world’s population and its economic rise in the last few decades has had a transformative effect around the world. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), both China and India are also expected to contribute around half of global growth this year.

In the previous decade, ten of Asia’s biggest and most dynamic economies – China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia, and Taiwan, made up 50 percent of incremental global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 60 percent of incremental goods exports, and supplied US$5 trillion in capital to the rest of the world.

One can argue that Asia is a more consequential region than even North America and Europe in the context of the world economy, global security and geopolitics. Increasingly it appears that the world’s centre of gravity is shifting to Asia, and away from the United States (US) led western alliance.

Indeed, many of the potential flashpoints for global conflict are in Asia. These include the disputed border between China and India, the conflict between India and Pakistan over the disputed region of Kashmir, territorial disputes in the South China Sea involving at least six countries, the volatile relationship between North and South Korea, as well as the ongoing political and military tensions between China and Taiwan.

The US, still the world’s pre-eminent power, albeit less so, is directly or indirectly involved in many of these possible flashpoints in Asia. As a major global power and a key ally to several countries in Asia, the US sees itself as having a role to play in promoting security, stability, and its own interests in Asia.

In the past week, Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, visited Beijing where he met with several high-level Chinese officials, including President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Foreign Minister. Tensions between the US and China have remained high in recent years over issues such as Taiwan and economic sanctions. Those tensions took a turn for the worse when the US shot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon in US airspace in February this year.

Therefore, Blinken’s visit was timely, although expectations for major breakthroughs remained low on both sides. However, the willingness by both sides to talk was a positive signal and for the good of global peace and stability, there will be sustained diplomatic engagements between the two countries to avoid a major confrontation.

As if not to be outdone by China, India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, also visited the US this week. Relations between India and the US are much better than that between the US and China. Nonetheless, things have been somewhat frosty given India’s reluctance to criticize Russia in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine as well as its purchase of Russian arms.

According to The Economist, a pragmatic friendship with India is indispensable for America because of the former’s growing economic clout; the soft power of its enormous diaspora (which includes the heads of several big American companies); and a mutual suspicion of China.

Against an international backdrop of war in Europe and a still fragile global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, the US is dealing its cards in Asia. The IMF has said that despite the sombre background of a challenging year for the world economy, Asia remains a dynamic region. The IMF forecast revisions imply that the economies of Asia and the Pacific are expected to contribute about 70 percent of global growth in 2023, a significantly larger share than has been seen during the past few years.

Asia is home to some of the world’s fastest-growing economies and it plays a central role in global supply chains. Therefore, stability in Asia contributes to peace and prosperity not only in the region but also globally. For these reasons and more, US diplomatic efforts in Asia are important and would hopefully reap dividends. Asia is also full of opportunities for other countries and regions, large and small, looking for investments, trade opportunities and deeper integration into global supply chains.

• Joel K Richards is a Vincentian national living and working in Europe in the field of international trade and development. Email: joelkmrichards@gmail.com