Poll shows marginal swing towards ULP – CADRES

If the general elections had been called when CADRES did its most recent poll here, the Unity Labour Party (ULP) would have won.

So says Peter Wickham, director at CADRES, a regional political research company. He told SEARCHLIGHT on Wednesday that his company’s most recent poll was conducted here during September and October at the national level and within select constituencies.{{more}}

The poll, which was paid for by the ULP, used the face-to-face interview methodology.

Wickham said that while he was not at liberty to be specific about which constituencies were polled, the results show a movement in the direction of the ULP.

“There is a swing in favour of the ULP government; however, this swing is marginal and as such, we have stated that the election is close, since it is entirely possible that this marginal swing could be neutralized or reversed, especially as the election has not been called yet,” said Wickham.

Elections are constitutionally due by March 2016, but Prime Minister Dr. Ralph Gonsalves has indicated that he would call elections before 2016.

Wickham said that CADRES polls are designed to render a margin of error of plus or minus five per cent and have generally fallen within that range.

“It is important, however, to note that polls reflect the situation at a point in time and this could change. We have found that generally in St Vincent the predictive value of our poll results lasts for about a month,” said Wickham, who told SEARCHLIGHT that CADRES has a policy of not disclosing the identity of clients, but he was advised that Prime Minister Gonsalves has already indicated that the polls were commissioned by the ULP.

He stressed that at the time of the poll, if the elections were called, the ULP would have won.

Going on, Wickham said that CADRES relies heavily on the

swing analysis and this approach would present marginal seats from the perspective of the ULP and NDP.

“The potential growth for the ULP lies in the Kingstown and Leeward seats the NDP holds, while the NDP’s potential growth is Central Leeward and North Windward seats held by the ULP.”

He said that at the time of the poll, a majority of people expressed the view that the ULP would win, “and several of these people expressing this view also said they would not themselves vote for the ULP.”

The pollster said “a clear majority of people preferred the leadership of Dr Gonsalves, who is now more popular than he was in the last election.”

Wickham said that the most noticeable trend among younger voters is that they are less likely to say who they will support and this poll was no different.

In relation to the Democratic Republican Party (DRP) headed by Anesia Baptiste and the Green Party led by Ivan O’Neal, Wickham said that the impact of these two parties is negligible at this time and this is consistent with Caribbean traditions.

“Normally, third and fourth parties impact more on the Opposition than Government.”

He said whether another poll is done prior to the elections depends entirely on how soon the elections are called.