Crucial Caribbean Elections amidst Militarism

By the end of this week two of the largest Caricom countries, Guyana and Jamaica, would have joined one of its most influential, Trinidad and Tobago, in exercising choices for a new government.

In Guyana, President Irfan Ali led his PPP/Civic coalition to its second successive electoral victory securing a majority of seats in the National Parliament, a result though which at press time yesterday was awaiting official confirmation by the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM). The conduct of the poll however has been okayed by international observer missions, including from Caricom, the Organisation of American States (OAS) and the Bar Association of Guyana.

The major surprise was the expected total obliteration of what was once a powerful, if controversial ruling party, the APNU+AFC alliance, which gave Guyana an international reputation for electoral fraud. It appears that the alliance may not even gain a seat in the 65-member Parliament. Upstaging it is a newcomer, the We Invest In Nationhood (WIN) party which, from preliminary results, had the second largest number of seats. The WIN party is itself a source of controversy, with the USA warning Guyanese about voting for a party whose leader has been sanctioned by that country.

The pre-election warning of the USA is another indication of its open involvement in Guyanese politics.

This, in keeping with American geopolitics, follows the interests of its giant multinationals. In the case of Guyana, oil and other mineral products have rapidly changed Guyana’s fortunes. From a country treated as a virtual pariah in the region, the discovery of massive quantities of oil and gas deposits in Guyana’s offshore waters has dramatically changed Guyana’s fortunes.

Guyana, the third smallest country in South America, is now predicted to exceed oil production of even Iran by 2027 and to have the highest expected global oil production by 2035. Whereas its current production is about 650,000 barrels per day,estimates are that this quantity will more than treble to two million barrels per day, surpassing the combined totals of Colombia, Ecuador,Peru, Trinidad and Tobago and even Venezuela. The latter country whilst having the biggest reserves on earth, is hamstrung by a range of US financial and economic sanctions which negatively affect its production, development and trade.

This historical American interest in oil profits and Venezuela’s opposition to US global problems, has brought with it a gloomy side to Guyana’s rich development prospects. The sticking point is a long-standing territorial dispute between Guyana and its western neighbour, Venezuela, over the Essequibo. Both countries claim this mineral-rich area, which occupies today fully 61, 6000 square miles of Guyana’s total area of 83,000 square miles.

The two neighbours are in fact victims of imperialist plunder, for the Essequibo was part of the once-powerful Spanish empire which succumbed to British, French and Dutch ambitions in the area. The dispute, despite several attempts at international arbitration is still unresolved, and the discovery and exploitation of the oil and gas deposits in Essequibo has incentivised Venezuela’s claims to the Essequibo. In fact, it took the intervention of our own Prime Minister, as then Chairman of the regional body CELAC, to get both sides to agree at Argyle in 2023 that they would “refrain, whether by word or deed, from escalating any conflict or disagreement”.

Though this fragile truce has held, oil avarice and US hostility to the Venezuelan regime present a major threat including to Caricom’s precious goal of the region as a zone of peace. Indeed, just as the region was wrapping up its CARIFESTA togetherness, the US has taken military action to deploy significant military resources to the region and on Tuesday, in fact announced that its had attacked an alleged Venezuelan “drug boat”.

Caricom today needs enlightened and wise leadership. However, to the alarm of most of its leadership, the newly elected Prime Minister of Trinidad and Tobago, has openly endorsed US military action, going so far as to urge the USA to “kill them all violently”.

This clearly is neither in the interests of the people of the region, nor indeed of the millions of American people. It is to be hoped that, besides the local issues, the Jamaican electorate will vote as to “give peace a chance”. War cannot solve our problems.