For whom the bell polls?

Just a few weeks ago Vincentians were confronted by the results of an election-oriented poll which purportedly had sought to measure the popularity of current political leaders and even to indicate the possibility of success of likely newcomers to the next general election, expected between late 2025 and early 2026.

The poll, conducted by a Caribbean Institute for Governance and Policy Research, and conducted by one Mr Davron Bruce, revealed some results which may have surprised some people but did not seem to create the level of shock waves as one would have expected in the circumstances. Among other conclusions it focused on possible political leadership in the country, indicating that there was a wave of popular support for the election of a new leader for this country.

According to the poll, more than half of those surveyed were in favour of Vincentians choosing “a young dynamic leader” as Grenada and St. Kitts and Nevis have done. St Vincent and the Grenadines’ Prime Minister, Dr Ralph Gonsalves, is 78 and counting, and has been in office for over 23 years now. The pollster indicated that the P.M. has an approval rating of just over 35 per cent with 40 per cent disapproving.

However, this was still higher than any of the other seven persons indicated, with Opposition Leader Dr Godwin Friday polling 21.22 per cent. Surprisingly, a rank outsider, West Indies Cricket Board President, Dr Kishore Shallow, followed with an approval rating of 19.96 per cent.

For persons familiar with such “polls” it is not surprising that one month after the poll results were released, it was announced that Dr. Shallow is to contest the next election for the North Leeward constituency on the ticket of the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP).

Surprise! Surprise! The pieces have started falling into place and it seemed that a new “Political Messiah” has been identified, giving his brand identity to the Opposition.

These developments are not new in either Caribbean or western politics. They provide a useful launching pad for political aspirants with the results of the “poll” becoming a useful indicator of the direction in which the political wind is supposedly blowing. Indeed, they become useful tools for manipulating public opinion.

The choosing of the critical leadership question is an attempt to capture the mood of a young populace especially in the context of an ageing leader whose in-your-face politics for over two decades must have rankled many voters. But one has to be careful with loaded questions seeking easy answers to complex questions.

Thus, it is easy to talk about a “young dynamic leader” as in St. Kitts and Nevis, and Grenada, but politics and leading a country requires much more than youthfulness and dynamism. Of course these are useful attributes, but the fate of 100,000 persons is unlikely to lie solely with such populist factors. Nor, we must mention, only on one’s age and experience. We must not look for shortcuts where the future of our country is concerned.

There is no substitute for doing the homework and taking much more serious factors into consideration. By all means it is understandable that a young electorate, many of whom have only known Dr. Gonsalves and his brand of politics, must be in search of successors; and Dr Friday has so far not succeeded in dislodging the self-proclaimed ‘World Boss’. Too, we have to be careful about political manipulation. There is no doubt that many, tired of the same chef, may wish to try a new cook, but the final decision will be in the hands of the electorate- and one week in politics, far more one year plus, can turn up some interesting concoctions. In time however, it will be revealed “for whom the bell polls”!