State Farm, one of the largest insurance providers in the United States (US), recently decided to cease offering homeowner insurance policies in California.

The context for this decision is that California experiences thousands of wildfires each year, with their frequency and intensity being accelerated of late by climate change.

The company “made this decision due to historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure, and a challenging reinsurance market,” State Farm said in a statement on May 26. The move came into effect the following day.

While this move directly affects homeowners in California, it also carries implications for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) across the globe. As SIDS grapple with the effects of climate change, this decision by State Farm raises concerns about the availability and affordability of insurance coverage for vulnerable island communities.

American International Group (AIG), another large US insurer, had already exited California’s homeowners’ market on January 31, 2022, for similar reasons as State Farm’s.

With State Farm and AIG withdrawing from the California homeowners’ insurance market, it sets a worrying precedent for SIDS. As major insurance providers, State Farm’s and AIG’s decision may prompt other companies to reconsider their coverage in high-risk areas. This could leave island nations with fewer insurance options and potentially lead to a coverage gap, leaving their populations and economies exposed to significant financial risks in the face of natural disasters.

The withdrawal of a major player like State Farm from a region can disrupt the insurance market, potentially leading to higher premiums and reduced coverage availability. SIDS, which already face economic challenges, may struggle to afford the increased insurance costs. This could have severe implications for homeowners, businesses, and entire communities that rely on insurance coverage to rebuild and recover from climate-related events.

State Farm’s decision to withdraw from California’s homeowners’ insurance market also raises questions about the effectiveness of risk assessment and modelling in the insurance industry. Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of natural disasters, thereby making accurate risk assessment critical for insurers. If insurance companies fail to properly assess the risks faced by SIDS, it could result in inadequate coverage and leave island nations ill- prepared for the challenges they are likely to face in the future.

Furthermore, SIDS heavily rely on tourism and other industries that are directly influenced by their natural environment. If insurance coverage becomes limited or unaffordable, investors and businesses may be reluctant to operate or invest in these countries. This lack of economic stability can further exacerbate the challenges faced by SIDS, hindering their ability to build resilient communities and adapt to climate change.

To address the potential implications of State Farm’s decision and the broader issue of insurance coverage for SIDS, several actions can be taken. First, international organisations, such as the United Nations (UN) and the World Bank, can work with insurance companies and governments to develop insurance programs specifically tailored to the needs of vulnerable SIDS. This may involve creating risk-sharing mechanisms or providing financial assistance to make insurance coverage more accessible and affordable.

At the last UN climate change conference in November 2022, a loss and damage fund was established. The fund aims to provide financial assistance to nations most vulnerable and impacted by the effects of climate change. Such a fund must be seen as a global public good, particularly in a context where the market cannot be relied on to take corrective measures for the overall good of SIDS facing extinction. The loss and damage fund now needs to be properly structured and financed.

Second, the insurance industry should invest in improving risk assessment and modelling techniques to accurately evaluate the risks faced by SIDS.

Collaborating with climate scientists, governments, and local communities can help insurers gain a better understanding of the specific challenges posed by climate change and develop appropriate coverage solutions.

Third and finally, SIDS must continue to prioritise climate adaptation measures to reduce their vulnerability to natural disasters. By implementing robust building codes, investing in infrastructure resilience, and promoting sustainable practices, these countries can mitigate risks and potentially make themselves more attractive to insurance providers.

• Joel K Richards is a Vincentian national living and working in Europe in the field of international trade and development.

Email: joelkmrichards@gmail.com