Changing Electoral Fortunes North and South

THERE WERE DIFFERING fortunes for the incumbents in elections held at the northern and southern extremities of the North American continent on Monday of this week. In the south, the opposition United National Congress (UNC) led by former Prime Minister Kamla Persad Bissessar,

at the helm of successive losses in the previous two general elections in 2015 and 2020, this time got redemption in a sweeping victory over Trinidad and Tobago’s oldest and most successful party, the People’s National Movement (PNM). Meanwhile at the northern extremity, Canada’s Liberal Party staged a remarkable recovery to win an election that it was predicted lo lose heavily just a few months ago. There was somewhat of a common thread to these results as we shall see later.

Setback For Electoral Juggernauth?

In Trinidad and Tobago, the 70-year-old political juggernauth, the PNM, founded by T& T’s founding father, Dr. Eric Williams, suffered only its fourth electoral defeat in its seven decades, when Ms. Persad Bissessar, bounced back from successive losses to upset the PNM apple cart.

These left pundits wondering if this could be the beginning of the end for the ageing party. It was only six weeks ago, that faced with voter disillusionment, especially among the younger voters, two-time Prime Minister, Dr. Keith Rowley, resigned from national leadership, handing the baton over to his protege Stuart Young.

Unfortunately, Young, lacking time, could not measure up to the formidable task of keeping the PNM in power. He established the unenviable record of having the shortest time in the hallowed office, the grand span of six weeks. He put even the shortened national leadership of our own Arnhim Eustace in the shade. There was some similarity in the circumstances, Eustace himself being the protege of Prime Minister Mitchell, who resigned after widespread protests against his rule, and Eustace never given enough time to consolidate his position.

While there is no doubt about the immediate popularity of the UNC, there are lingering doubts whether the ageing Persad Bissessar will be able to match up to the daunting tasks ahead. Trinidad and Tobago squandered many of its economic opportunities, plagued by corruption of the highest order and mismanagement. The energy sector, long the lifeblood of the economy, is in dire need of revitalisation, and for a country so resource endowed, the levels of poverty and unemployment are unacceptable. Worse, the twin-island republic has massive social problems, with crime, especially murders, and drug-running, inclusive of illegal arms trading, especially worrying. The new Prime Minister certainly has her work cut out for her.

It will be interesting to see how the UNC will handle yet another attempt at managing a coalition of forces. Previous attempts, both formally and informally, of marrying the UNC’s traditional Indian base, with trade union and intellectual input have ended in disarray in the nineties and even as recently as 2015. It will be a difficult arrangement to manage as even the PNM has found out in its history.

Trump Arrogance Gives Liberals Lifeline Meanwhile at the other North American extremity, the Canadian election ended in a result which was quite unforeseen just four months ago. Then the head of Canada’s governing Liberal party and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, was forced to resign after widespread dissatisfaction with his rule. All predictions then pointed to a victory by the opposition Conservative Party which had suffered three successive electoral defeats.

In desperation they sought a credible replacement turning to long time banker, Mark Carney, former head of Central banks in the U.K. and Canada as well as performing prominent roles in the financial sector such as with Goldman Sachs. In other words, a representative of the international financial sector. Though respected in those circles, he lacked the political experience deemed necessary to revive the flagging fortunes of the Liberals.

But as fate would have it, Carney was handed a lifeline by none other than the leader of Canada’s neighbour, the USA. President Trump, still harbouring illusions about imperial grandeur, announced that he was going to pursue the annexation of Canada, making it the 51st state of the USA. Now, Canada is the world’s second largest country with incredible resources and potential.

It also belongs to the elite group of developed nations called the G7, along with the UK, Germany, France, Japan, Italy and the USA.

Trump’s arrogance was seen as a glaring insult by Canada and invoked strong nationalist sentiment. Worse came his imposition of tariffs, hitting Canada, the economy of which was tied heavily to that of the USA, and with whom the US has an economic treaty along with Mexico, particularly hard.

As nationalist sentiment grew so did the character of the election change.

Emphasis was now put on a leader, perceived to be strong enough and wisened to manage the looming threat from the USA. In the circumstances it allowed the international banker, Carney, to wage a “Canada strong” campaign which eventually took him to victory. But Canada’s problems go beyond the Trump threat, for problems like inner city decay and social problems, including rising crime rates need to be tackled. Canada also has to face up to its sordid history of oppression of its indigenous peoples,highlighted by the visit of the late Pope Francis in 2022.

So, both victors at the polls have their work cut out for them. Incidentally, Trump’s tariffs are also an issue for T& T and the Caribbean. In addition, the US administration is pressuring T& T to join it in a campaign to strangle neighbouring Venezuela. Ms. Persad Bissessar though, has not invoked the sentiments which fuel “Canada strong”. Instead, she has publicly supported Trump’s actions and seems willing to line up on the side of those opposed to the interests of the Caribbean people.

It is early days yet, but interesting times are ahead.

•  Renwick Rose is a Social and Political commentator.