El Niño threatens jobs, incomes for many in Latin America, Caribbean

The 2026–2027 El Niño phenomenon could negatively affect employment, reduce workers’ incomes and worsen working conditions in Latin America and the Caribbean, with informal, rural and outdoor workers among those likely to be hardest hit, according to new research by the International Labour Organization (ILO).

The ILO policy brief, El Niño 2026–2027 and the world of work in Latin America and the Caribbean: a causal chain from climate to employment and labour institutions, explains how changes in rainfall patterns associated with the phenomenon affect agriculture, fisheries, energy, logistics and other sectors, with potential consequences extending to employment, food insecurity, rising food and energy prices and an increased risk of child labour.

“The 2026–2027 El Niño poses a major challenge for employment and decent work in Latin America and the Caribbean. The scale of its impacts will depend on countries’ ability to anticipate them through strong labour market institutions, social protection systems and social dialogue that protect those who are most vulnerable,” said ILO Deputy Regional Director for Latin America and the Caribbean Fabio Bertranou.

The study stresses that the impacts of El Niño are not predetermined. While the consequences will vary depending on the subregion, productive sector and institutional capacity of each country, informal workers, rural workers and people working outdoors are among those most exposed to income losses, deteriorating working conditions, and occupational safety and health risks.

(ILO Caribbean Office)