CariCof predicts a cooler Caribbean Summer

The Caribbean is set to get a break from the extremely hot summers it has been having over the last two years.

According to information from the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF), based in Barbados, the annual heatwaves will most likely start from this month, April; however they are unlikely to match those of 2023 and 2024.

CariCOF attributes this to “El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions” in the Pacific Ocean, meaning that the ocean temperatures in that region are neither too hot nor too cold, which usually affects global climate patterns. Waters around the Caribbean are warmer than usual, but at the same time, the eastern part of the Tropical North Atlantic has cooler waters than usual.

These variations in water temperature are what influence weather patterns, like how much rain or sunshine the region may expect over the next few months.

It is also expected that April will experience high evaporation rates and frequent short, dry spells, which usually increase the chances of wildfires. Except for Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao, CariCOF expects to see a rise in rainfall intensity as well as shower frequency, around May, in the Bahamas, Guianas, and Greater Antilles, or June in Belize and the Lesser Antilles, “resulting in high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts.

“Episodes of Saharan dust intrusion will likely be frequent,” CariCof added, noting “ the more frequent these are, the more dryness and heat, and the more erratic the occurrence of severe weather.”

In the latest drought situation, CariCOf said moderate, or worse, short-term drought has developed in the central and northern Bahamas, the Cayman Islands, parts of St. Croix, Sint Maarten and St. Bart’s. While long-term drought has evolved in southern Belize, the northern Dominican Republic, south-west Jamaica, St. Bart’s, St Vincent and the Grenadines, south-east Suriname and north-west Trinidad.

(Source: LoopNews Caribbean)