A Political Tornado hit SVG on November 27

ONE THING THAT stands out to me about a tornado is that it is capable of destruction on one side of the street while leaving the other side virtually untouched. We are now into a new political era; Dr. Gonsalves who led the charge for 25 years has stamped his image on the country.

This has come to an end. Although the Comrade remains leader of the Opposition and of his party, it is expected that he will soon give way or be forced to do so, to a new leader.

For the future of the party this has to be done. Dr. Gonsalves’ legacy cannot be overlooked. Many, especially in the region who have paid tribute to him, have concentrated on his impact on regional politics and his ventures into global politics, making SVG the smallest nation to have served as a member of the UN Security Council. Little has been said about the country’s internal affairs under him, issues related to crime, unemployment, poverty, the building of the Argyle International Airport and Sea Port, the Education Revolution ‘so-called’. This needs to be done.

My column today focuses on the election, looking at issues in some of the constituencies. About ten days before November 27 someone asked my prediction for the results. I stated in part that if the NDP was to be victorious it would not have been by a small margin. I detected that there was a swing in the country but had no scientific way of telling its magnitude. I was guided by the sounds on the ground, by listening to people speak around the market and elsewhere, and by voices and writings on social media. By the 25th I was prepared to call it 14-1. I was still not sure about Marriaqua which I had not been following closely. I was convinced that the NDP would have retained all the seats it currently had, despite the noises being made about the Southern Grenadines. In that constituency the pattern of voting did not convince me that there would have been a turn around given the swing.

The devastation of Beryl and the nature of rehabilitation efforts suggested to me that it would have remained safely in the NDP hands. In fact, in 2020 the ULP won the two polling divisions in Clifton, but its numbers in one of the polling divisions dropped significantly and it tied with the NDP in the other in 2025. Central Leeward was the largest margin that had to be overcome.

The sitting representative won in 2020 by 503 votes.

I do not have figures for the number of persons registered in the communities of Central Leeward, but Barrouallie has the larger number. It was always felt because of the ULP’s strength in Layou that to be victorious one had to come out with a significant margin from Barrouallie, and Buccament, though small in numbers, could make a difference. Although Keartons is part of Barrouallie, its numbers are not listed as part of Barrouallie. So, for Barrouallie proper Huggins got 1103 votes while Brewster of the ULP had 1022 in 2025. In 2020 the ULP won the

NDP in Barrouallie – 1179 – 1011.

For Layou in 2025 the ULP had 823 and the NDP 707 votes, a margin of 116.

In 2020 the ULP received in Layou 935 and the NDP 705 votes, a margin of 230.

In Keartons in 2020 ULP 380 and the NDP 333, Buccament ULP 209, NDP 151. The margin was 58.

Huggins had therefore to overcome a margin of 503, the largest to be overcome in all the constituencies.

With family and community connections in his home village of Keartons, his personality, the amount of work he was putting in on the campaign trail and the fact that people in Barrouallie found Brewster missing in action, convinced me that it could have been done. Buccament was also showing signs of being part of the swing. In fact, this manifested itself on November 27, when the ULP won by only six votes.

Keartons made the difference however, with Huggins of the NDP polling 420 and Brewster the incumbent 331. A remarkable achievement given that 503 margin. Many doubted he could have done it but he put everything into it and grounded with the voters.

With a swing possibly of five percent, East St. George, South Windward, South Central Windward and North Windward were constituencies likely to change. The North Leeward representative won by only one vote. After Central Leeward, West St.

George and Marriaqua were the two constituencies with the largest margins to overcome based on the 2020 results. The NDP candidates in those two constituencies did “a kind of Eddie Griffith”; not a lot of fanfare but tremendous work on the ground. Of 17 polling divisions in Marriaqua, Jackson of the NDP won 13. In West St. George Cupid of the NDP won 18 of the 19 polling divisions.

In East St. George Gibson-Velox won all of the 22 polling divisions. Two other interesting constituencies to look at are North Windward and South Central Windward. There is a lot more that will be said about the 2025 elections and about Dr. Gonsalves role and about his legacy.

_ Dr Adrian Fraser is a social commentator and historian