President Trump is making 2025 One Hell of a Year

I have heard recently of two cases, one not a Vincentian, where persons with genuine US Visas were told at the airport that their Visas were cancelled. No reasons given! Everything on the Visas seemed intact. When we put this alongside the way in which illegal immigrants have been deported, not to their countries of origin but to any country that accepts Trump’s bribe to hold illegal immigrants thrown out of the US.

There are cases where persons holding green cards or who were US citizens were caught up in the flow. There is that famous case with El Salvador where despite the Judge’s ruling that the person should be returned the US Administration had claimed it was then out of their control despite the fact that they were paying El Salvador to keep who were classified as prisoners there. I am beginning to feel that if there is no clarity or change to the process, that our Carnival might be affected; with persons afraid to leave fearing possible difficulties when they return to the US. It appears too that a large number of Canadians who took their vacations in the US, particularly Florida, have refused to do so this year.

The 47th US president started his presidency with a number of Executive Orders many of which by-passed Congress and are being challenged in Court, many of them put on pause by the Court. What exactly is the President’s mission? He had given some indication of what he wanted to do during the run up to the election, much to the liking of his MAGA supporters. The speed with which he began to introduce some of his measures shocked many, particularly outside of the US. His imposition of tariffs on his neighbours, Mexico and Canada surprised many, and as I had indicated in a previous article, seemed to have had an impact on elections not only in Canada but also in Australia. In Norway and Greenland support seemed to be shifting away from right wing parties as the world reacts to one whom some describe as a ‘populist demagogue’. His levy of huge tariffs on China might have led to an upsurge in Chinese nationalism benefitting its leader XI, Jinping.

The moves made by Trump led to a great degree of uncertainty which was not in the best interest of global trade and investment. Some of his initial executive orders especially about tariffs were later reduced or postponed making it difficult to make economic plans. What stood out most were the tariffs imposed on China. Trump had boasted that huge tariffs were to force countries affected to appeal to him. China did not, but given the role of China in trade with the US and the rest of the world, the markets and business interests seemed to have gotten to him and following a meeting in Geneva the huge tariffs on China were temporarily reduced and put on a 90-day hold, hoping that some final solution would be agreed on by both parties. The tariffs as currently exist following the reductions are still much larger than they had previously been. Business interests in the US have to take a gamble not being sure if they would be lowered after the 90 days. But time is a factor for goods needed in the US from China for Christmas, particularly toys and electronics. Remembering too that Trump had quite often pulled back on his initial threats and executive orders.

China has strong relations with most countries in the Caribbean except for SVG and St. Lucia which are holding on to the coattails of Taiwan which have grown extremely short. What happens with relations between China and the US outside of the tariff war will probably not change. I always remember that when Elephants fight the grass gets trampled but that the grass also gets trampled when the Elephants make love.

In the US Trump is testing the limits of his power. So far, the guardrails are still holding. With Congress, one never knows although the signals from their constituents will ultimately influence their position. The 47th president is currently in the Middle East where the leaders understand him and will stroke his ego and make their deals. Qatar’s proposed gift to the President of a 747 Jet clearly violates the US constitution. It was originally purchased for the Royal family at a price of US$ 400 million.

The President, constitution or not, states that he would be stupid to turn it down. The constitution means little to 47.

But what is Trump about? He is using the military and economic might of the US to stroke his ego. He had indicated during his 45th presidency that he likes strong men. Putin and Kim Jong Un fit that bill, although his relationship with those two appear to be on hold. To me Trump has no clear ideological position except that he wants to be a global strongman. At home Universities are under attack. He is cutting Research grants, trying to get rid of Black Studies programmes. Harvard refuses to submit to government’s demand. Its president said that no government should dictate what Universities should teach, whom they hire and whom they admit. Trump’s response was to freeze 2.2 US$ billion in research funding to Harvard. It is still early in his presidency. Will the guard rails hold? Will Republicans stop worshipping the 47th? These are interesting times!

•  Dr Adrian Fraser is a social commentator and historian