Sovereign or not sovereign? The re-emerging fight for the Caribbean chessboard

Editor: Sovereignty, at its core, is the supreme and absolute authority of a state to govern its own territory. As defined by the Merriam-Webster Dictionary, it represents complete national independence: the exclusive right to enact laws and total freedom from external control. In practice, this foundational political concept operates across two distinct dimensions: Internal Sovereignty: A government’s absolute monopoly on power within its borders. It is measured by a state’s capacity to maintain law and order, enforce policies, and govern citizens without domestic interference. External Sovereignty: A state’s relationship with the global community. It requires recognition by other nations as an independent entity, equal standing under international law, and immunity from foreign domination.
The 1648 Peace of Westphalia established the principle of exclusive state sovereignty over internal affairs and territory, ending the thirty- and eighty-years’ wars.

China transitioned from a cosmic-based imperial authority to a staunch defense of Westphalian national sovereignty, while Japan shifted from a feudal system to an absolute imperial state before adopting postwar popular sovereignty.

Caribbean sovereignty evolved through three distinct historical phases—the erasure of indigenous self-determination, a 19th-century wave of violent anti-colonial revolutions, and a highly fragmented 20th-century process of negotiated decolonization. Today, the region features a complex geopolitical landscape composed of fully independent nations and non-sovereign territories constantly navigating the pressures of foreign hegemony.

Following Christopher Columbus’s arrival in 1492, Spain claimed absolute sovereignty over the entire Caribbean Basin, decimating native populations through enslavement, forced labour, and introduced diseases. By the 1600s, northern European powers—England, France, the Netherlands, and Denmark—aggressively shattered Spain’s monopoly. They seized islands to establish brutal slave-plantation economies centered on sugar production, treating the Caribbean strictly as external economic assets devoid of local political autonomy.

Enslaved Africans in Saint-Domingue revolted against France, founding Haiti in 1804. This monumental victory established the world’s first independent Black republic, fundamentally redefining sovereignty as an uncompromised rejection of slavery and colonialism. In 1844, the eastern half of Hispaniola asserted its own distinct sovereignty by breaking away from Haitian control to establish an independent state. Cuba and Puerto Rico remained under Spanish control the longest.

Following the Spanish-American War in 1898, Cuba achieved nominal independence in 1902; however, its sovereignty was heavily restricted by the United States via the Platt Amendment, signalling a permanent shift from European colonialism to U.S. geopolitical dominance.

Following the collapse of the West Indies Federation, British territories pursued sovereignty individually. Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago achieved full independence first in 1962, followed by Barbados (1966), the Bahamas (1973), several smaller Eastern Caribbean nations throughout the 1980s, and Belize in 1981.Many former British colonies initially retained the British Monarch as their formal head of state. Recently, a strong push for absolute “constitutional sovereignty” has re-emerged, exemplified by Barbados transitioning to a republic in 2021 and ongoing, active debates in Jamaica. Conversely, several islands deliberately chose political integration over outright independence, such as Martinique and Guadeloupe, which integrated directly as overseas departments of France.

Under contemporary U.S. foreign policy, Western Hemisphere nations face intense pressure to restrict close economic and political ties with global rivals like Russia and China. The United States uses its adversarial relationships with Venezuela and Cuba as cautionary templates, projecting a clear doctrine to the region: align with Washington or forfeit functional sovereignty. Under this aggressive posture, Caribbean states face a coercive choice between yielding autonomy or risking economic isolation. This geopolitical leverage is highly visible in regional healthcare diplomacy: Jamaica, Guyana, and the Bahamas have already terminated their official agreements with the Cuban Medical Programme to avoid U.S. friction. Other Caribbean Community (CARICOM) members, such as Belize and Saint Lucia, continue to navigate the diplomatic fallout. Their leaders actively defend the immense contributions of Cuban medical brigades to rural, underserved communities, attempting to preserve local healthcare infrastructure while evading U.S. sanctions. Outside the immediate island chain, regional partners like Guatemala and Honduras have similarly phased out or terminated their Cuban medical contracts under explicit pressure. Viewed through the lens of game theory, the United States treats the Caribbean as a strategic chessboard. Washington will likely continue utilizing coercive diplomacy across all CARICOM nations—deploying systematic economic penalties and, if necessary, implicit military posturing to enforce absolute regional compliance. The interaction between the United States (the Hegemon) and Caribbean states (the Players) functions as a series of strategic moves where survival, autonomy, and regional alignment are the ultimate payoffs.

Sovereignty, defined as a state’s absolute authority, is evolving into a constrained, “premium luxury” for smaller nations navigating high-stakes survival amid U.S.-China power struggles. While the Westphalian model suggests absolute self-governance, modern geopolitical pressure—exemplified by Caribbean nations aligning with Washington over Beijing and Moscow—demonstrates that true autonomy is frequently sacrificed for economic survival. Ultimately, sovereignty is a relative, moving target, requiring nations to maximize leverage through economic and political strength in a constrained global landscape.

Brian Ellis Plummer