Beijing or Washington?

Editor: The first Opium War started in 1839. It is called the ‘Opium War’ because of one of its major causes: the British were running opium from their Indian colonies into Chinese ports against the desires of the Chinese government. Hong Kong became a British colony through two wars: the First (1839 to 1842) and Second Opium Wars (1856 to 1860). This was a hot trade war. The British had a trade deficit with China, that sold porcelain, silk, and tea in exchange for silver and wanted to correct it by forcing China to buy opium from them. From approximately 500 to 1845, China was the world’s largest economy, holding a significant share of global GDP. The United States surpassed China as the world’s largest economy around 1890 until 2016(IMF- using GDP-PPP). The United States (US) was established by British descendants. As a mathematician, I see China’s rise as a regression to the mean, which means unusually high or low values are more likely to be followed by more typical or average values. The US Navy had a presence in the China Seas and visited Macao, with the arrival of the USS Peacock in November 1832 marking the beginning of a nearly constant presence of American warships in the region. From 1850 to 1870, there were proposals within the U.S. government to potentially acquire Taiwan from China. Taiwan has continuously been an important chess piece in US-China relation.

In 2000 the United States trade totalled 2.0 trillion, more than four times China’s $ 474 billion. Today China dominates trade being the largest trading partner of more than 120 countries. China exports US $3.6 trillion and imports US $ 2.6 trillion with a trade surplus of $ 992.2 billion. In order to correct the US trade imbalance and re-industrialize the US, president Donald Trump launched a plethora of tariff on over 180 countries on April 2, 2025. On April 9 he paused his trade war tariff for 90 days on all countries with a universal 10% except China at 145%. Bear in mind countries like China, Mexico, Canada and the European Union still have special tariffs. This is not unusual for the US. In 1789 Alexander Hamilton, the first US Secretary of the Treasury shaped the Tariff Act of 1789, signed by President George Washington to address the US debt problem. In 1930 the US initiated a trade war with the passage of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. This is world trade war 2 because in 2018 president Donald trump initiated world trade war one against many nations with its main target being China. This trade war is disrupting global supply chains, raising consumer prices, and potentially leading to economic stagnation and conflict. This can also lead to reduced consumer choice, innovation, and job losses. While some may argue tariff protect domestic industries, the long-term effects generally point towards negative consequences for all involved countries.

The share of Chinese exports going to America is shrinking—falling from 21% of total exports in 2016 to just 13.4% in 2024. In 2018, the United States was China’s largest trading partner. Today, ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) is China’s largest trading partner. In 2018, ASEAN’s share was around 10%, and today it’s approximately 15%. American exports to China are dominated by low-value-added commodities like soybeans, cotton and beef. These are easily replaceable—Australia, Brazil and Argentina can all step in to fill the gap. Meanwhile, many Chinese exports to the US, including consumer electronics, machinery and processed minerals, are not so easily swapped out. China is cultivating alternatives. Its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has opened new trade corridors across Central Asia, Africa and the Middle East. In February 2025, 149 countries had signed Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) with China within the BRI. Over 145 (70%) countries trade more with China than with the US;33 countries have the US as their largest trading partner.

The US is actively engaged in a global effort to pressure countries to limit their economic ties with China, especially in high-technology sectors. On December 2, 1823, President James Monroe gave his 7th State of the Union address before Congress, using the occasion to advance what would later become known as the Monroe Doctrine: The Western Hemisphere was no longer open to European colonization and that any intervention in the political affairs of the Americas by European powers would be considered a hostile act by the United States. The Caribbean is seen as the US backyard and no other foreign power can influence the Caribbean according to this doctrine. According to figures from the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Chinese trade with the Caribbean went from $1 billion in 2002 to $8 billion in 2019, when $6.1 billion worth of Chinese exports and $1.9 billion in imports were recorded. The committee identified major Chinese projects, including the development of a $3 billion deep-water port on Grand Bahama, just 55 miles from the U.S. mainland, and a $600 million investment to improve the Dominican Republic’s electricity grid. According to Forbes, China is funding $2.1 billion worth of projects in Jamaica and $773 million in Suriname. Cuba, Suriname, Guyana, Trinidad & Tobago, Grenada, Barbados, Dominica, Antigua & Barbuda, Dominican Republic and Jamaica had signed up to Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. Evan Ellis, a research professor at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, “On a per capita basis, there is no other part of the Western Hemisphere that receives the quantity of trips for its police and defense force officials two Chinese military institutions, gifts of police and military vehicles and material, visits by Chinese hospital ships, and other [People’s Liberation Army] military diplomacy as does the Caribbean.”

On March 27, 2025, speaking during a joint press availability with Suriname’s President Chandrika Persad Santokhi in Paramaribo, Marcio Rubio made it clear that the U.S. is not seeking “spheres of influence,” but rather, is responding to the lack of viable and trustworthy alternatives in the region. This was a part of Marco Rubio, US secretary of State’, visit to the Caribbean Community nations of Jamaica, Guyana and Suriname. He was critical of China and its projects in the Caribbean. The chair of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, Rep. Rick Crawford of Arkansas, and Rep. Ronny Jackson of Texas visited Guyana, Suriname, and Barbados last week. Crawford told Politico that China is set to overtake the U.S. in terms of regional influence unless Washington increases trade and investment with Caribbean nations. It is clear that all the members of CARICOM will experience economic, diplomatic and other pressure to join the US alliance. Congruent to the Mar-a-Lago accord, paralleling the 1985 Plaza accord, the Caribbean will be in the green zone which come inside the sphere of influence of the US. Countries in the green zone can cut deals on tariffs, get military support, but have to cooperate with the US on its geo-economic goals. What will the Caribbean do? Will we choose Beijing or Washington?

Brian Ellis Plummer