‘Soufriere could erupt without warning‘

Despite the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) promising at least a 48-hour warning before an explosive eruption of La Soufriere, the possibility exists that the volcano may explosively erupt suddenly and without warning.

This was noted on Monday by volcanologist Professor Dr Richard Robertson while speaking on NBC Radio’s Face to Face programme.

Professor Robertson heads a team from the Seismic Research Centre, University of the West Indies (UWI-SRC) St Augustine Campus that is closely monitoring the volcano that started erupting effusively last month.

He said the team is uncertain about the time frame of an eruption but they hope to give enough warning so that people get a chance to mobilize and evacuate.

“That is a challenging one. It is something that we constantly work on. We will like to give as much time as we can,” Robertson said while adding that monitoring means that you keep a close eye on everything, seismicity, dome volume changes, ground deformation, and as soon as they “see anything” they inform the authorities.

“As soon as we see anything definitive in terms of it moving from effusive activity to explosive, we would tell them,” he noted while adding that he knows how much time the authorities would like to have, as the plans have a 48-hour time frame and they are trying to get that but people need to understand that “this is very uncertain.”

“We are trying to detect what is happening beneath the surface of the earth and that is not always easy to do.

“So the most I can say is that we hope to give enough warning, at least some warning that people can get a chance to mobilize but it is necessary also for people to prepare for the fact that the warning A, might be very very tight…in terms of very tight, I mean the time between saying something is going to happen and it actually happens could be very small and most instantaneous as well, as you have to prepare for the fact that we can give a warning and indicate that something is going to happen and then it doesn’t actually happen.”

He said the fact is that they can warn persons of an explosive eruption and it does not happen, so that is a challenge, because they do not want a situation where persons are told to evacuate and nothing happens and it becomes a “cry wolf” situation where evacuation is needed and no one moves.

“It is a challenging thing and we try to tell people honestly as we are doing now what some of the challenges are so that they could prepare for that level of uncertainty.

“But we are constantly working on trying to give as much notice as possible and I sure that NEMO and the authorities are also fine tuning their plans so that they can take as little time as possible to do what they have to do, but people themselves also need to take responsibility and make sure they have their plans in place,” the volcanologist told radio listeners.

“To be honest, the warning you will get is the first explosion from the volcano. It is possible…,” Robertson reiterated.

He noted that they are constantly working to give some heads up before an explosive eruption but the warning might be what is happening now.

He noted also that it is also possible that La Soufriere may stop growing and have a short break or inactivity for several weeks or months between when it goes to an explosive state.

Robertson said that with La Soufriere, records show that once it has started producing new magma like it is doing now, it is very unlikely that it does not resolve itself at some point with some sort of explosion, but they do not know if that will happen in the next few weeks, months or years.

Speaking on Monday also, Director of the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) Michelle Forbes said her organization has been on the road in the red and orange zones where they are sharing important information.

She encouraged persons to have preparedness plans and NEMO has already communicated muster points in the various
communities.

These meeting points are for persons who do not have transportation.

Forbes also reminded that the responsibility of evacuation starts with the family.

Persons are being encouraged to liaise with the various community disaster groups.

She said if someone needs assistance in moving a bed ridden person, they should let the various groups in the community like the Red Cross know, and assistance will be given.