Is the world big enough for the US and China?

United States (US) Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, arrived in Beijing, China on July 6,2023, for a four-day visit. She became the second US Cabinet member to visit China in a month, following on the heels of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. It has also been reported that John Kerry, special presidential envoy for climate, plans to visit China in the days ahead. These high-level exchanges are coming at a time of heightened tensions between the US and China on a range of issues, including trade, technology and Taiwan.

Notwithstanding the many areas of disagreement between the US and China, Yellen struck an optimistic tone and stated that the world is big enough for both US and China to thrive. However, the question of whether two superpowers can coexist has been a topic of debate among scholars and policymakers for decades.

The Cold War era (1945-1991) is perhaps the most notable example of two superpowers, the US and the Soviet Union, coexisting in a state of intense rivalry. The competition between these ideological adversaries was marked by proxy wars, arms races, and political manoeuvring. While the Cold War did not result in direct military confrontation between the superpowers, the potential for catastrophic nuclear conflict loomed large.

Despite the tensions of the Cold War, there were periods of détente and cooperation between the US and the Soviet Union. The Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) in the 1970s resulted in the signing of several arms control agreements, such as the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. These efforts aimed to manage the rivalry and reduce the risk of nuclear conflict, highlighting that coexistence is possible through diplomacy and negotiation.

The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 ended the bipolar world order and led to a unipolar moment, with the US as the sole superpower. While the US has remained as the pre-eminent global power, other nations like China have risen to prominence, leading to a new dynamic of power relations.

The rise of China as an economic and military power presents a contemporary case study on superpower coexistence. China’s increasing influence has resulted in a reconfiguration of global power dynamics, leading to competition and concerns about potential conflict with the US. Efforts to manage this relationship have involved a mix of cooperation, economic interdependence, and competition.

Having concluded that the US is seeking to block its economic progress and “encircle” its military, China has been generally reluctant of late to engage with the US. Military-to-military talks have been suspended and dozens of communication channels between different government ministries and agencies have become dormant, thereby depriving each side of mechanisms that can defuse smaller disagreements and disputes.

As the incumbent superpower, it is natural for the US to want to preserve its global dominance. After all, self-preservation is a basic human instinct. On the other hand, as a rising global power, it is also natural that China would want to assert itself and claim global influence which is consistent with its growing power. Self-actualisation is also an aspect of human motivation.

The world is certainly big enough for healthy competition between the US and China. If both sides pursue their interests in an atmosphere of trust and establish clear and predicable norms, rules, and institutions to manage the competition between them, then there is no reason why the world cannot accommodate the two superpowers.

However, where countries, especially small states are forced to choose sides, where competition acts as a drag on the global economy, and where there is the risk of war which can have untold consequences, then the world will quickly become too small for two giants flexing their muscles.

• Joel K Richards is a Vincentian national living and working in Europe in thAe field of international trade and development.

Email: joelkmrichards@gmail.com