The Tornado in the St Georges’, Marriaqua and South Windward Constituencies

ANY SERIOUS look at the constituencies held by the NDP would have been convinced that they would have remained grounded with that party. A lot of noise was being made as I indicated before about the Southern Grenadines following Hurricane Beryl and the disaster relief that was coming to that area.

The candidate for the ULP for that area who is a radiologist was selected and given a position where she became involved in the organisation and distribution of relief supplies. We very often underestimate the electorate and figure that they are up for grabs. There was certainly a lot of confusion following the transfer of students from that area to Kingstown. Would those who had reached the age when they were qualified to vote have to vote in Kingstown or were they to register in the Southern Grenadines. That was like making a mountain out of a mole hill. But in any event, there are those who thought that the Southern Grenadines which has traditionally voted NDP was going to make a change.

The former prime minister was stating that he had the windward corridor locked down and seemed to have been focussing on North Windward which they had won in 2020 by a narrow margin. The candidate selected was a woman from the area, living elsewhere and had been serving as the Hospital Administrator. I have always said that voters should look carefully at the track record of political candidates to determine how they are likely to function if successful in their political ambitions. If that was done the candidate would have scored badly given the multitude of problems associated with her period of tenure. She might not have been responsible for the state of affairs but as the administrator, the buck was bound to fall on her. The other area of focus was North Leeward where the incumbent representative had won last time around by one vote and in a constituency that has always displayed the ability not to hold on to their representatives for very long.

East St. George was interesting. The incumbent representative was the son of the prime minister, widely regarded as a possible successor as leader of the party and as prime minister. The ULP in 2015 had won that seat by a margin of 607. This was reduced in 2020 to 196 votes. In 2015 the ULP had won 16 of the 19 polling stations; in 2020 the ULP held 11 of the 19 polling stations. 2025 was a blow out, the NDP candidate Laverne Gibson-Velox winning the seat by a margin of 1046 and winning in all of the polling stations. A lot can possibly be said about that contest but Velox, since her loss in 2020 by a reduced margin, felt energised and concentrated her campaign efforts on visiting the constituents and trying to understand their needs.

Gonsalves in the meantime was concentrating his efforts on big projects, in the process neglecting his constituents. That was a major victory especially given the fact that he was seen as a possible successor to his father.

Like East St. George, West St. George, Marriaqua and South Windward were part of the corridor that was locked down. The incumbent representative for West

St. George won that position in 2020 by a margin of 360, winning 14 of the 19 polling stations. His community involvement and family connections were instrumental in his win. Kaschaka Cupid who was a late entry into the race is also from the same area as King and as I am told, only a street separates the homes. Like King he was a home boy. He represented SVG as an Under- 19 cricketer and also had strong family connections. Cupid, it appears did a lot of work on the ground. His margin of victory was an amazing 1,081; winning at all polling stations.

Philip Jackson was the last of the NDP candidates to be selected. The incumbent representative had won by 756 in 2015 and 353 in 2020. The 2025 elections had a turnaround, Jackson winning by 406 and being victorious at 13 of the 17 polling stations.

In 2015 the ULP won 14 of the 17 polling stations and in 2020, 11 of 16. South Windward was traditionally another strong area for the ULP. It won that constituency by 759 votes in 2015 and by 220 in 2020. That drop from 759 to 220 in 2020 should have been a signal for the ULP. There was some difficulty selecting a candidate, but it probably didn’t matter because despite the fall off in numbers in 2020 it was still considered a safe ULP seat. The swing had also affected that constituency and the fact that the NDP won with a margin of 539, reflected in their win in 13 of the 18 polling stations. The windward corridor had been broken if not destroyed.

Although there were circumstances in each constituency that would have affected the outcome, it is safe to say that the NDP ran a better organised campaign with a strong message. The party was able to get on board a number of excellent candidates with skills that are desperately needed. The party seemed to have attracted strong youth support that turned out in large numbers to all their rallies. Fitting into that too was the cry for a change of party and direction. The then PM had long dominated politics in SVG and had total control of his party. His campaign did not help, his calling on voters to come back to Labour sent a strange message. The urging of his party warriors to go on the streets even while the votes were being counted savoured of a man facing defeat. His manoeuvres on the night before voting day and on the day of voting appeared also very strange. The truth is that the PM was allowed to dominate his party for too long and believed that he was the only one who could have ensured victory. How the party sets about organising itself and dealing with the leadership issue will be critical to how it moves on.

_ Dr Adrian Fraser is a social commentator and historian