The Tornado’s Path Through the Constituencies

THE TURNOUT OF voters at the November elections was reported to be 62.2 percent. I do not take this seriously, for the Registration list is still filled with many dead people and persons who might have left this country a long time ago with no intention of returning.

Having said that one must acknowledge that of the percentage of votes cast, North Windward was highest with 73.3, followed by North Leeward with 70 percent. These two constituencies were the focus of attention by both political parties. The total number of registered voters was 103, 254 near to the total population of the country. The fact is that the actual size of our population now is really part of a guessing game. We are still awaiting the results of the last census. Why is there a problem cleaning up the list of registered voters?

Some urgency must be given to this, but it also relates to the fact that statistics for this country are difficult to get and whatever we are given is often filled with inaccuracies.

Let us look at North Windward. Fancy is a small community with one polling station. It has traditionally supported the NDP. In 2015 NDP won by 77 votes, 95 in 2020 and in 2025 126. The NDP added 20 at the single polling station while the ULP lost 11 votes. Next, Owia with 2 polling stations, also a strong supporter of the NDP. In 2015 The margin of victory was 312, in 2020 the margin was 351 and In 2025 it won by 403 votes. ULP fell by 33 while the NDP gained 19 votes.

Sandy Bay is the bedrock of the ULP and had 4 polling stations. In 2015 ULP’s margin was 567. In 2020 ULP’s margin of victory was 507, while it narrowed to 414 in 2025. The ULP lost 25 votes while the NDP gained 68 votes. The ULP lost votes in 3 of the polling stations, adding 6 votes in the other. The NDP increased its votes in all of the polling stations.

In Overland’s two polling stations the ULP won by 4 votes in 2015, NDP won by 27 in 2020 and by 122 in 2025. NDP lost 8 votes in one polling station, while the ULP gained 10 votes in one station. In Overland the ULP lost 87 votes while the NDP’s margin of victory in 2025 was 122.

LANGLEY PARK had 4 polling stations. ULP’s margin of victory was 84 in 2020. In 2025 NDP won the polling division by 14.

The ULP lost votes at all 4 polling stations, losing 52 votes. The NDP won the polling division, increasing its votes by 46. Then in DICKSON, In 2020 NDP’s margin of victory was 95. In 2025 NDP’s margin of victory was 103.

MT BENTINCK – in 2020 ULP’s margin of victory was 39. In 2025 the ULP won again by 19.

The ULP’s victory in this constituency was 323 in 2015. This was reduced to 62 in 2020 and the NDP won by 225 in 2025.

When we look at South Central Windward a similar pattern is seen. In this constituency the ULP lost votes from 2020 at all the polling divisions. The NDP lost 29 votes in 3 polling stations in Mt. Greenan, New Grounds and Higher Lowmans. The polling divisions won by the ULP were Diamonds with a margin of 335; Mt. Greenan 131.

Note that in New Grounds in 2020 the ULP margin of victory was 122. In 2025 it was down to 16. The NDP was victorious in Higher Lowmans, North Union, Lowmans Windward and Greiggs. Greiggs overwhelming support for the NDP made the difference.

The margin of victory in 2020 was 383 but in 2025 it was a walloping 526. The swing which was detected saw the ULP losing votes even in constituencies that they won, as opposed to the NDP margins of 93, 94, 87 and the significant increase in Greiggs from 383 to 526, the NDP winning the constituency by 324 votes overturning ULP’s 239 in 2020.

In North Central Windward in 2025 the ULP won by a margin of 1581 which was down from its 2020 margin of 1989. Even in North Central Windward the ULP lost votes, compared to 2020 in all polling stations except one in Byrea which it won by 2 votes. In those constituencies that I have mentioned there is clear evidence of the swing.

What were some of the factors that made a difference? I mention a few. I am of the view that the Covid Vaccine mandate was a major issue and that those who were affected, including their families/ relatives went out on November 27 with a vengeance. I still have in my mind the picture of the fired teacher who was living in the hills in Layou with his son. The long period in government where first time voters had never seen another government. The long tenure of the Prime Minister without a successor allowed the conversation about nepotism to continue since many were convinced that the PM was awaiting an appropriate time to pass it over to his son. For some strange reason the new Seaport was seen as vote catcher and there was a race to have it finished before the elections were called. The problems faced there might have resulted from the hurry to have it completed. The Referral hospital was pushed quickly to send a message to the electorate.

The idea of selling passports never had the impact it was expected to have. It is not only that our Eastern Caribbean nations were participants in the CBI programme but it was endorsed by the Eastern Caribbean Bank that is putting a regulatory mechanism in place to guide the participants. The benefits of that programme to the participating countries became well known.

The NDP’S campaign was well funded and organised. The party was able throughout the campaign to keep its supporters fully energised and supportive.

There are of course many other factors which I will deal with in due course.

Dr Adrian Fraser is a social commentator and historian