PM and ULP face formidable challenge

Now that the Carnival is over, politics in the form of campaigning for the next general elections will dominate the local landscape for the next eight months or so, assuming that those elections do not come until the first quarter of 2011.{{more}} Not even the onset of Nine-Mornings and Christmas is expected to change this situation. For this we have to thank, (not sure if that is the most appropriate word) talk-show radio for a constant surfeit of political issues, often slanted in a partisan direction.

For Prime Minister Dr. Ralph Gonsalves and his governing Unity Labour Party (ULP), the 2010/11 electoral campaign is sure to be his biggest challenge since he first faced the polls at the head of a brave, young United People’s Movement (UPM) in 1979. Many were the uphill battles that he waged between then and his historic triumph in 2001 but never could he have visualized having to climb such a steep incline as the one now facing him. Certainly not after the significant accomplishments of his administration over the past decade!

In recent times, however, the ULP government has suffered a series of setbacks which test severely the political standing of the Party and which have given confidence to the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP). Suddenly, that party, after crippling defeats in the elections of 2001 and 2005, and being written off by many pundits, has clawed its way back into contention and now legitimately contends for power. In this it has been helped by a succession of blunders on the part of the incumbents and prominent supporters that have handed the initiative to the opposition party. These, more than any conscious policy positions developed and put forward have helped to revive and re-energize the NDP to the point where, more than any other time in the past ten years, it seems to believe that it can win the next general elections. Whether that feeling will match reality is left up to the electorate.

What one can say with a fair degree of certainty is that these have had the effect of virtually placing the ULP on the back foot, for the first time since its inception. Combined with all this is the difficult economic climate primarily caused by external factors. Remarkably, the administration’s admirable efforts to keep the economy afloat in very trying circumstances have been overshadowed by a series of negative developments which have had the effect of jeopardising its political support. It is not the programmes of the government which are at the centre of the political storm but rather a series of issues related to governance and morality.

ULP suffered a series of setbacks

It is ironic that the ULP should find itself in such a situation after the level of political support which swept it to power and maintained its standing through the 2005 elections. The ULP, of course, does not accept the proposition that it faces the biggest threat to its hold on power since 2001. In fact, Prime Minister Gonsalves is on record as denying that his Party has lost any support since 2001. That assertion will soon be tested but in any case it is imperative that the ULP examine why it should find itself in such a position today. Why is it that a party in opposition whose decline it had predicted should now be on the offensive and believing that power is within its grasp? What are the factors which have led to a growing impression, rightly or wrongly, that the NDP has a good chance of becoming the next government?

Such soul-searching and serious analysis is necessary if the ULP is to come to grips with reality. To the best of public knowledge, there has been no clear analysis made public as to the reasons for the defeat of the government, (yes, the government because that is how the referendum was fought, on Party lines) on the critical matter of constitutional reform. How come the huge political capital in hand at the start of the process was so frittered away as to lead to an ignominious defeat for the Yes vote?

PM targeted as butt of NDP campaign

It is one thing to put on a brave face and exude confidence in the outcome of the upcoming poll, another to make that happen. One must admit that Dr. Gonsalves is a formidable political opponent and it would be a mistake for the NDP to write him off just yet. He and the ULP are far from finished. Yet in order to succeed, Dr. Gonsalves would have to lead the finest charge in his entire career. Therein lies a contradiction, in that the NDP has clearly targeted the P.M. as the butt of its campaign. Its inroads are based on eroding the image of Dr. Gonsalves but it appears that it is left up to him to rescue his administration. Can he succeed?

It will not be easy, not while bad news such as that surrounding the former Chairman of the NCB, who is being taken to court for non-payment of large outstanding sums, eat away at the credibility of the ULP. The ULP victory in 2001 was premised on an end to such unsavoury happenings. Good governance, morality and integrity were the watchwords. How come such a mess was tolerated? And if the Opposition Leader’s charge about a company owned by the loan defaulter, offering to sell the NCB shares in his company for approximately the value of the outstanding amounts is true, then the P.M. has a lot of explaining to do. The role of the Attorney General, as wife to the defaulter, government’s legal advisor and nominal shareholder is under scrutiny. Conflict of interest is the logical charge. How will the government handle all this? Eyes are watching and minds are discerning.

Renwick Rose is a community activist and social commentator.