Polls shows five per cent swing in favour of ULP

A recent poll of the electorate in St Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) suggests there is a five per cent swing in favour of the Unity Labour Party (ULP).{{more}}

So says campaign manager and general secretary of the ULP Julian Francis, who made the disclosure while a guest on the “OMG” morning show on Boom FM yesterday.

“The way we look at it, there is a swing for the ULP in our favour, between 2010 and now. There’s a five per cent swing in favour of this party.”

According to Francis, a five per cent swing means that the ULP stands a good change of winning four seats in addition to the eight they currently hold.

Francis said the ULP was at its lowest in the 2010 general elections and since then, the party has conducted three polls.

“And every time we have done a poll, it shows us that our ratings have increased. The latest poll that we did shows us that there’s a five per cent swing in favour of the ULP.”

Francis said he believes in the “science of polling” and although he does not understand “all the intimate details of the process,” the polls that Peter Wickham of CADRES has done for the ULP since 1998 have proven to be accurate over the years.

The general secretary, however, said the details of the poll are not being released for strategic reasons.

“When you do a poll, you don’t do a poll for the fellas to get a result without paying any money. I can’t do a poll and then come out and give you the results of a poll….”

Francis said if he did that, it would mean that the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) would get information from the poll without spending money.

The general secretary says he is so comfortable about a win for his party that he has started planning the celebration rally.

“I start planning my celebration rally and swearing- in ceremony. Let me put it this way, there’s no way that the NDP’s taking any of the eight seats we have, because I have that confirmed.

“I have that confirmed from the point of view of what I feel on the ground. The two weakest seats that we had in regards to numbers, Central Leeward and North Windward. Montgomery Daniel is now stronger than he has ever been in North Windward and [Sir] Louis Straker (of Central Leeward) has come back in and strengthened…

“So, the eight is government…. Government comes with eight seats. West St George, we won by 382 votes in the last election. We won in West St George better than we won in East St George and everybody is targetting West St George,” he added.

Francis also assured that the North and South Leeward seats, now held by the NDP will be recaptured.

He also said that the ULP stands a “fighting chance, with the possibility of winning clear out, two of the three Kingstown seats, with a fighting chance in the third one. We could very well pull in the three Kingstown seats,” he said.

The NDP narrowly lost the 2010 general elections, seven seats to the ULP’s eight seats.

A few weeks ago, Wickham told SEARCHLIGHT that another poll that he had conducted in late October, early November, showed a marginal swing in favour of the ULP government.

He was of the view then that the elections were going to be a “tight race.”(KW)