Wickham: It would take 5 to 6 per cent swing for ULP to lose elections

In order for the Unity Labour Party (ULP) to be removed from office, there would need to be a voters’ swing measuring five to six per cent, says pollster Peter Wickham.{{more}}

But Wickham, the principal director of CADRES (Caribbean Development Research Services Inc.), which has done two polls here this year, February and in July, believes that this will not be the case, because based on his statistics, the ULP has successfully managed the swing vote in the past and can do it again.

“My point is that if the ULP has shown in the past that it has the capacity to manage the swing, the assumption is that it will be able to do it now as well. I am seeing a comparable situation now after the referendum as in the case of 2005,” said Wickham.

He said in May 2005, he conducted a poll here and his investigations showed that there was a five per cent swing, but by December of that year when the general elections were called, the incumbent ULP had contained it to two per cent and successfully romped home with the elections.

Wickham estimated the ULP supporters that did not vote during the November 25, 2009, referendum to be in the region of 10 per cent. He said this grouping will determine whether the swing is two per cent in the upcoming general elections or five per cent.

“In February, it appeared the swing was similar to what it was in 2005, five per cent. It’s clear to me now that it has been contained,” said Wickham, who started working at CADRES in 1994.

“If there is a two per cent swing against the ULP in this election they will not lose. They will still be in office. In order for them to be removed from office you need a swing of about five or six per cent,” said Wickham.

He noted that in every election, governments will come under scrutiny and there will always be a negative swing. (HN)