POLITICAL ANALYST: BOTH PARTIES HAVE AN ADVANTAGE

Peter Wickham, a Political Consultant and the Principal Director of the leading Caribbean political research company, Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES) has pinpointed several differences on the eve of the December 7 General Elections in St.Vincent and the Grenadines that can significantly influence its outcome.

In an interview with SEARCHLIGHT on Wednesday, November 9, Wickham said the two leading political parties here, the incumbent Unity Labour Party (ULP) and the Opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) both have an advantage leading up to the polls. He said the ULP has in its favour a stronger leadership than the NDP while the NDP has on its side an assumed swing against the government.{{more}}

Wickham was quick to point out that his view was not scientific but based on general political trends in the region. He however noted that he might be conducting a poll when he comes to St. Vincent and the Grenadines next week with just three weeks left in the political race.

“The assumption that we have now is that the governments of the Caribbean will have a difficult task in getting re-elected. That does not mean that they will not be re-elected,” Wickham stated. He outlined that the second term syndrome is still a factor. This has been the case in St. Lucia, Jamaica and St. Kitts.

The veteran political analyst said he is particularly interested in the race between Opposition Leader and President of the NDP, Arnhim Eustace and Senator Julian Francis of the incumbent ULP in the constituency of East Kingstown. He said he is also interested in the race involving Senator Glen Beach of the ULP and Lennox Daisley of the NDP in South Windward.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Dr. Ralph Gonsalves told SEARCHLIGHT that while generally a second term syndrome exists in the Caribbean it does not necessarily have to be like that. He said the ULP is stronger today than it was in 2001.

“In every constituency we are stronger than the last time,” said Dr. Gonsalves whose Party swept 13 of the 15 seats in the 2001 polls.

“I feel we could do a clean sweep but I must admit the Northern Grenadines is not an easy mountain to climb,” Dr. Gonsalves emphasized.

He said the ULP’s campaign is the Caribbean Classic Two. He said Classic One was seen in 2001. Prime Minister Dr. Gonsalves said he is happy with the way things are going with his Party adding, “I have it beautifully,” reflecting on his decision to announce a December poll. He said Sir James Mitchell, founder of the NDP lost the General Elections in 1974 and also in 1979 in the month of December hence he is hoping that time will mirror a similar outcome in 2005.

Meanwhile, Senator St. Claire Leacock, Vice President of the NDP told SEARCHLIGHT he is projecting his party would win the General Elections with a reasonable number of seats. He said it would not be politically sensible to give predictions.

Leacock sharing his view on the Prime Minister’s decision to call a December poll said: “We knew elections had to be held before the Budget. He spent himself. He had no surprise.”

Leacock said his Party will accelerate its campaign staging three meetings tonight. He said the NDP will not be giving way to tribalism, mudslinging and aggression.